I think the idea of a "feature startup" is dead. What used to be a niche subscription business is now an individual Epic level of work. The smallest viable business becomes what two or three years ago was a mid tier enterprise. It is no longer "look at this tool I maintain", but "we take this specific approach using these hundreds of tools merged together to solve a problem in a specific way that nobody is going to compete with. Not because they can't compete if they wanted to, but that the competitions approach diverges in fifty different chosen ways that they are targeting a different market segment essentially."
I adhere to the idea that this is software's "Tower of Babel" moment where everyone just fundamentally ships things in completely diverging architectures, because creating a ground up architecture is no longer something that needs to be avoided for an economically viable business mode that in the past two decades would have otherwise incentivized people into industry standards. In a world where "taste" is the focus, single ingredients in the recipe aren't enough.
Considering how core Wireguard is to the whole Tailscale value proposition, are they funding the future of that V2 roadmap on the open source side? If the answer is "no", and because the security world isn't going to stay put (particularly with AI math advancements happening lately are accelerating medium term risk), then one has to assume Tailscale is working on it's own in-house "V2" equivalent protocol for post-quantum support to enable that vision? I doubt you're doing nothing.
Australia doesn't have protected speech. We're starting to see the dam break where rules that were left unexplored because it would go against the US driven view of globalization is starting to wane due to the US's loss (self destruction?) of its soft power.
The security of this list is essentially the motivation of the plot of Mission Impossible (1996). Except that's the just list of undercover agents, not he whole agency.
I ran into this exact issue and had Claude write a test run scheduler to avoid cargo process contention and migrated to nextest within it. I have --release build cycles on my local machine down to about three seconds from what was for the same project 60+ seconds before investing in the changes.
I mean, looking at the release notes for things like say the Linux kernel it is clear that the improvements are there at a massive rate of change. But it's small stuff, it's performance improvements, it's quality of life. If you do things right people will think you've done nothing at all. What did you expect? Businesses to come up with whole new business lines, or is it just that backlogs of work is getting burned down that was going to be gotten to eventually? From what I can tell from the PM forums, the next bottleneck is the Product Org coming up with ideas worth implementing as fast as the developers can deliver them.
Which only changes the title and your new bottleneck is product engineers struggling to come up with new product ideas worth doing month over month. While also half of their job is still the engineering side of the problem with less customer centric time.
This sort of thing makes me thing that we're about to enter an era where software development is going to be where most of the jobs fallout will be. You can't one-shot vibe code your way to this. But for proper Software Engineering, those jobs are safe where more and more problems are going to actually need solving by creatively using math because all the problems individuals deliver are just going to be larger. People are just mourning the loss of the low hanging fruit.
I think you're speaking like a software engineer, which is understandable, and not like a historian or economist. There's no reason to believe math based jobs would survive. The models regularly do well on math problems. You can auto-research loop ways to optimize memory usage for any particular program.
The point isn't that "doing math" is safe. Auto-research solves one target variable in one system, doing it at scale where say one developer is SME for the agentically manged 200 microservices down the line, heh I mean you certainly can, but good luck with that token cost of auto-research when that problem space is O(microservice^2). I point at that example yesterday of that optimized database memory with the comments pointing out that the specific problem fit in memory, over optimized and didn't generalize. The problem isn't the work, but the rework. A historian should know that new solutions to problems doesn't lead to "no problems ever again" but only problems with barriers that the new solution doesn't solve.
The argument is probably that LLMs can find those optimizations cheaper than a human expert. Since LLM cost at fixed capability seems to be going down you either expect humans to be completely replaced or human wages to be lowered by LLMs.
I expect average human wages for programming to get lower and the overall percentage of the developer to move lower wage countries and this probably means away from the US and US salary expectations. Meat proxies and agentic CRUD will be off-shored to low wage Asian or even African countries with AI handling language barriers. Why wouldn't they be? Why pay six figures for a meat proxy? Product Builders should weather the storm the most, but they'll be the high end skilled PMs/engineers that of the overall industry but probably won't break 10% of total global headcount. In a world where knowing the domain will be the key driver of differentiation, as building averages out and knowing the customer and how to market to them becomes the differentiator, being closer to the target market will fragment competition from four global winners with over 10k employees in a space to 100 niche/regionally tailored winners with maybe 500 employees a piece. Not to mention if you thought GDPR was a pain, wait until AI laws that vary by country to country get added in.
I also expect as AI becomes more cost sensitive once the quality plateaus (there's only so many ways to get an answer to 100% right), the data centers are going to chase where the cheap power is, and this long term is likely to be in high-solar locations. So lower latitudes. Doesn't rule out places like Texas of course, but places like India, Mexico, Brazil, Israel or Saudi Arabia will have home field advantages.
Yeah, they are used in space. I don't work directly in this field, but have discussed wax motors with some newspace/smallsat folks, and get the impression they are popular for the same reason nitinol wire actuators are: few moving parts, no rotary bearings, resettable/multi-use unlike pyrotechnic actuators.
The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, will take three years to repair. Oil prices don't get "cheap" again this side of 2030. Not to mention that there is a bunch of Russian infrastructure that is still on the chopping block to be destroyed by Ukraine as that war continues. Which has the same time it takes to rebuild issues.
Iran infrastructure is a non-issue, they have been heavily sanctioned for years. The issue with Iran is they are stopping everybody else in the region from exporting oil.
While they have been under heavy sanctions, they have largely gotten around this, for example by trading with China (who have just said they will not abide by our "unilateral sanctions"). So their oil has still been going to service global needs, and its lack will still have an effect (as will the missing Russian oil products).
Oddly, since the Iranians (and Russians) have been selling their oil products at a discount, they were actually having the effect of holding down the price of petroleum prior to the war. No idea about how much in real terms, but...
There is a global market for energy, a country X that would have bought from Iran but couldn't because of refinery damage has to buy it from someone else, pushing up the price at the margin for everyone.
That's the main issue, yes. But where was all that oil Iran was producing going before their infrastructure was destroyed? Are you claiming they only ever used it domestically and didn't export any of it? That seems unlikely.
All the petrol processed in the world is consumed virtually on the spot, take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll create all kind of nasty side effects, now take down multiple major actors/transport roads and you get the current situation
That's not a source. And it also directly contradicts your assertion.
Petroleum products are refined and consumed near the point of use because they're not very shelf stable. Petrol is not shipped internationally in any significant quantity, neither is diesel for these reasons.
Take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll have shortages locally but crude oil supplies will divert to other refining capacity and fall in price.
It's still a global trade. Russia - India trade is directly affected, so that affects the supply of diesel out of India for those who normally buy from India. So they buy from somebody else. And so on down the line.
Diesel is shelf stable for 6-12 months, which is long enough to ship anywhere in the world.
It does. Oil export is down after repeated attacks on ports and export infrastructure both on Black and Baltic sea and attacks on tankers in Black (and even Mediterranean) sea. Russia exports less oil than it extracts and will start shutting down oil wells soon (may be doing this already).
Attacks on refineries also have impact on worlds petrol/diesel prices - one of biggest exporters turned into an importer at a time when there is world shortage of refining capacity and cracks spread is at or near all time high.
> It also limits their ability to fund the war.
It does but it also makes petrol and diesel more expensive around the world.
> well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess
They should be sued by governments, they can only make more money if they artificially increase their margin, if they simply passed the cost down to the consumers they shouldn't have record profits
Even if they didn't react to the natural demand/offer dynamic, American refineries are processing 30-40% more volume than before; that means US oil companies are making money that someone else was making before.
When people have an incentive to build that fast and cut corners (which they will). Under normal circumstances dotting the i's and crossing they t's, it's 5 to 7 years. Remember, the US is temporarily running low on missiles because of how much explosives Trump dropped on Iran. They blew up a petrostate level of petroleum infrastructure to the tune of $58B in damages of specialized engineering, about 15% of the country's total GDP. If recreating that in a quarter was possible, everyone with a drop of oil under their toes would do it.
I adhere to the idea that this is software's "Tower of Babel" moment where everyone just fundamentally ships things in completely diverging architectures, because creating a ground up architecture is no longer something that needs to be avoided for an economically viable business mode that in the past two decades would have otherwise incentivized people into industry standards. In a world where "taste" is the focus, single ingredients in the recipe aren't enough.
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