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“We’re right 50.75 percent of the time… but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time. You can make billions that way.”

- Robert Mercer, the former co-CEO of Renaissance Technologies


lol this is a great quote, it's like a couplet from a standup set. It's humorous, unexpected, on closer reading it's possibly true, and then you see the source and immediately realize it must be correct.

Any article you'd recommend about Renaissance? I've always been curious but not curious enough to read "just anything"


This is a pretty good article on Mercer and Renaissance: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-... https://archive.ph/8Iuyh

> Magerman told me, “Bob believes that human beings have no inherent value other than how much money they make. A cat has value, he’s said, because it provides pleasure to humans. But if someone is on welfare they have negative value. If he earns a thousand times more than a schoolteacher, then he’s a thousand times more valuable.” Magerman added, “He thinks society is upside down—that government helps the weak people get strong, and makes the strong people weak by taking their money away, through taxes.” … Another former high-level Renaissance employee said, “Bob thinks the less government the better. He’s happy if people don’t trust the government. And if the President’s a bozo? He’s fine with that. He wants it to all fall down.”


People are scared of inhuman AIs taking over but maybe they should be more scared of the inhuman humans who've already done so. How many of the world's billionaires are emotionally stunted misanthropes like this? What do we do when we find ourselves in a system where someone with no emotional intelligence, empathy, or interpersonal skills can make themselves a gigantic pile of cash by pushing buttons on a screen without ever having to interact with another human, and then decides to find a sense of purpose by hurling their wealth around according to some seriously misguided views? It seems obvious to me that a core component of the problem is the fungibility of money, which over time absorbs all other figures of merit and rolls them into one, called "power", which subverts any system designed to contain it.

reminds me of this talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEBv0STiYhI&t which basically says the same thing - they dont think like humans so they dont have context, understand norms,values or implications we take for granted. ultimately they can stumble onto surprising solutions neither wanted or intended but technically within the vague boundaries of the task

So glad you shared this talk. Having people like Bruce Schneier around in a time like this is really a gift.

For those who haven’t watched, his breakdown of types of “hacking” is really good.


funny enough this looks written by AI. could have used a little more creativity.

The text is clearly not written by AI… people need to chill on this accusation. Yes, the blog design itself looks Claudish, but if you actually read the post, no AI writes like that.

The site is clearly Claude and the post is too long (see scrollbar.) Also it's about AI.

I tapped out.


I swear claude took a detour recently, its written output has been nearly incomprehensible to me. At first i thought i was getting AI-brained and just lost critical thinking but as i dug into response after response its was just the most obtuse language to explain what was going on. Really mentally taxing to wade through it all day.


It’s bad enough that I’ve told Claude never to write cleverly and never to use metaphors. Opus 5 mostly ignores those kinds of instructions, annoyingly enough.


It's almost unusable.


100% had said something to the tune of this months ago in another thread on passkeys

> Passkeys need a marketing campaign and UX overhaul. I’m a technical guy, but I really don’t understand what the fuck is going on when I use a passkey. All I know is one day it appeared as an option and it let me login to things. I don’t really understand where it lives, what device it’s tied to, how scanning a QR code on Google Chrome on my phone magically logs me in, etc etc.

The user was not educated on this. Hacker News is the top 1% of computer power users. You gotta understand to someone’s grandma or mom or brother who works in real estate none of this makes any sense nor will they educate themselves on what it is.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46301585#46303892


is there like a unfathomable amount of people immune to the ad cancer of this website? how do they have enough traffic to justify this? may they succumb to AI summarizing their site so people do not have to visit it.


Ublock Origin for the win.

Again.


Even if you uBlock origin 24/7, Daily Mail will still be total shit...


> In today's world, what's the best way to get to a top-tier analytic essay? I'm curious to see.

AI generated content graded by AI for what goal exactly? I don't understand this contest at all.


Thanks for the feedback, I should revise the copy there. I think when I started the contest I wasn't fully sure myself. Here are the goals that stand out to me. 1. Is auto-scoring an essay really possible? (Meaning, cost-effective, reliable, valid) This is more of a personal motivation - I worked hard on the 190 items and receiving responses will help me figure out if they're full of shit. 2. It would be super cool to see an “ideal” essay on this! AI safety is so topical. The contest asks entrants, in part, to say: Is Klara and the Sun in favor of AI safety efforts? If no, that’s awkward! If yes, on what grounds? You would think since I made up the rubric that I know what the "right" answer is here. But there's a lot of ambiguity in the text. 3. (For people writing their essays via AI) What is the value of prompting if/when we get to ASI? For most prompt engineering-style entries, I figure they aren't also a scholar in the humanities. So entering the contest is a test case of trying to prompt AI to do something "better" beyond what they can already do themselves. You could spin that up as prototypical of what life in general might be like in some amount of time. What prompt techniques even survive when you can't really assess what "Now make it better!" should look like? That's interesting! 4. (For people writing their essays as humans) Maybe this contest format is more humane than typical peer review? You always know where you stand. You get a score back in a few minutes, as soon as the scorer finishes going through the rubric. And the revision process is private, with no loss of face. In contrast, scholars in the humanities sometimes have to wait up to a year to hear back about a submission.


It’s personal ad, basically. The author is trying to get a job as an evaluator somewhere and is hoping that putting 1000$ on the line will get them enough publicity to land them an interview/get a job somewhere.


holy smokes this whole website is beautiful and so well done.


Same boat, although the soul sucking, I find, comes from the fact that AI can iterate on ideas so much faster than I could even begin to pull out a pen and paper that I find myself in an existential crisis when I use it too often.

What is the point of my work, especially when I must ship for a paycheck, if I offload all my thinking and understanding to a machine. I can certainly dig deep and understand all the code the AI wrote, but when you didn’t create it, it feels so much less fulfilling. How does one find fulfillment in the AI engineering age? Isn’t solving problems and coming up with novel solutions part of why most of us got into it in the first place? When you strip that away, what is left? It’s code casino - I pull the lever, it spits out something that either feels like a dopamine hit (it works), or it spits out garbage and I prompt and pull the lever again hoping to strike the jackpot.

I find the most insufferable engineers those who use AI and think they are geniuses because they have access to this tool. Or say “AI told me …” They mistake the tools output for their own creative output or ingenuity.


Funny story to build on this. I spent a couple of days last week building a Powershell script for database refreshes (backups + restores). The process was iterative (typical), and AI helped me solve all the problems we've ran into historically here. It helped me write tests for all the gotchas I had stored in my head from watching various approaches fail over the last couple of years. I ended up with pre and post hooks on every side, and at a high level I'd vastly improved the time to delivery because (as I initially stated) I knew EXACTLY which problems I needed to solve there, and AI helped me get there in a fraction of the time. The end result was a common .psm1 file, 2 ps1 scripts (the orchestrator and executor script), and a total of about 2k lines of Powershell, which I hadn't combed through line-by-line because the tests were solid and I tested it in non-prod prior to releasing to production.

The first run in production ended up causing an unhealthy db in RECOVERING state because there was a tiny logic bug where the restored db wasn't verified as ONLINE before it set it MULTI-USER (which our db state monitors caught within the couple seconds of that being true).

I think AI has enabled us to solve problems much quicker without being intimate with every tiny detail of the code itself. The funny thing about the story is that this isn't a novel problem. Coming in behind a peer who wrote the thing, or even coming in to debug a script I'd written myself a year ago is the same. AI has just pushed up the time to lacking knowledge of precise details of logic, so you can ship something and be unaware of EXACTLY what it does the same day, instead of 6+ months later.

I'm not sure if this is right or wrong, but debugging it was 3 minutes of presenting the issue back to AI instead of 2 days of combing through 2k lines of Powershell that I may or may not have written.


IMO we have been conditioned to believe that everything is "all or nothing" which is a mistake. AI-assistance provides undeniable leverage IF, and only if, you know what you want. I think the market, in general, is still finding where things level out here. The problem, which I have been guilty of myself at times, is offloading key decisions. Humans absolutely have to retain those. AI can be used to present options, but the accountability always rests with the human (at least for now).


Wouldn’t you rather they say AI told them than claim it’s their own idea?


both are aggravating. i think you can use AI, say you use AI, and then demonstrate your understanding of what it created through documentation or other means. Hiding it or blatantly turning off your brain and saying "AI told me" are both bad practice.


Sometimes I say an LLM told me something for a hobby project where I'm using them as a means to extend my abilities into a realm I am ignorant of. But I think if a co-worker deferred to an LLM like that I'd be super disappointed.


The code casino is real and I don't have an answer to it, only share the sentiment. It is frustrating and exhausting to go through those boom/bust cycles.

The workflow that works for me is: I do the thinking, the writing, then let the AI review it. I am still doing all of the creative work and thinking. The AI keeps me honest and its code reviews are very helpful. The loop becomes competitive and makes me pay more attention to detail; I try to nail things on the first attempt. This gives me a sense of accomplishment and improvement.

Whether this workflow has its days counted, I don't know. But I also don't care. If/when software development as we know it truly stops being a thing, then I'll sadly just have to move on and work in another field. I am not doing vibe coding or programming in natural language. Fuck that.

But I have also noticed that, as much as the AI can process things faster than I can (I also use it to help me navigate the existing code base, and that is also very helpful), it cannot answer the question of whether we should do something, or whether X is more desirable than Y, etc. Maybe for some people, thinking about those things and letting the AI do the rest is enough. For me, personally, I like to navigate all levels of the development.

"AI told me" -- yes, absolutely insufferable dudes. I just don't even bother stating a reply.


it was probably never about winning for Musk, but to leverage the legal system to air out some drama in open AI and some internal dialogue among the execs of the company for bad press.


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