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Any papers you'd recommend?


Most progress in data-driven robotics nowadays are done either in unicorn startups or corporate research labs - so you should follow the industry more than academia. The path to good robot performance isn't really in the models themselves - it's highly dependent on how much you can gather high-quality real-life data.

Specifically for laundry folding, Sunday Robotics is probably the state of the art, where they were able to obtain 99.1% success rate and call it "done": https://www.sunday.ai/blog/act-2-preview#solve-standard


If their hero image video and the side by side at (5x) with a human at quote "1x" are "solved" I'm not impressed. I'm faster and more accurate and I am the worst folder in my house (kids included). The human looks like they are doing it slow mo to show children how to.


The thing that bothers me about most paywalls is that they want you to take a subscription to remove it. I've got more than enough subscriptions in my life.

Why does no one use the Google Pay or Apple Pay integration for single articles? Have me pay a buck for an article, and I'd happily do so.


Why does no one use the Google Pay or Apple Pay integration for single articles? Have me pay a buck for an article, and I'd happily do so.

If you pay $15/month to Apple News, you get tens of thousands of articles a month for less than a penny each.

Or you can see what app your local public library is hooked up with. Mine gives free access to several hundred newspapers and magazines from around the world.

The app isn't great, but the price is right.

Still, most people who moan on HN don't want to bother with the minor inconvenience of getting a library card. It's much easier to complain in public and click an archive link.

If they actually put their money where their mouths are, they wouldn't be able to satisfy their fake righteous indignity and draw attention to themselves.


Automatic Phoneme Recognition (APR). There are some models that do this, but they're only so-so.


It looks more similar to the 1929 crash to me, where "too big to fail" blue chip stocks were overinvested and overvalued, and the value adjustments rippled through the rest of the economy. If NVIDIA does get a meaningful value adjustment downwards, it'll probably survive, but it'll impact the S&P500. People will need to sell off other stocks to cover the losses, etc. etc.


> It looks more similar to the 1929 crash to me, where "too big to fail" blue chip stocks were overinvested and overvalued, and the value adjustments rippled through the rest of the economy.

Yup. Add to that the decade worth of ZIRP following the 2007ff crash and Covid... all that money has to exit the system again eventually.


nvidia's forward p/e is 24. walmart's is 39.


That is exactly the point. These circular deals artificially increase the earnings of company and as a result artificially decrease price–earnings ratio.


What kind of sources do you like to read? Do you have a blog or publish anything? I keep on thinking about this comment and want to hear more of your perspective.


The amount of coping, seething etc at the fact that Nvidia is hilariously profitable leads to some of the funniest cognitive dissonance I’ve seen on the internet.


The problem is - what happens when the AI bubble bursts for whatever reason, and suddenly NVIDIA has to deal with a lot of its high-margin business going away? With its outsized weight amongst most indices and consequently ETFs, even a small percentage of value correction will wipe out a lot of wealth.

We've seen that with the dot-com bubble in the past, a lot of the "dark fiber" that we use and rely on today was gotten for incredibly cheap after the collapse of debt-fueled customers and, subsequently, the collapse of the ISPs.

That scenario is what I am afraid of repeating, partially because a lot of the market (especially at the tail end, such as datacenter companies investing into buildouts, and consequently construction companies investing in machinery and staff) is fueled by debt and a domino-level collapse can trigger another cascading debt default crisis that can then send off banks into failure.


That seems to indicate the market is more confident in walmart's earnings than nvidia's.


There's a pretty big difference between "we need laws and regulations" and "let Trump do whatever he feels like today."


What are the proper laws and regulations? Can you point me to a proposed framework that you believe is most correct?

I have no idea how this stuff should be regulated. I do know that any sort of comprehensive legislation at this point in time has a much higher chance of being a bottleneck to innovation than an easily reversible white house directive.

Of all the terrible things to come from the odious Trump administration, them saying "hey, can we make sure these models aren't dangerous?" is one of the least bad things they've done.


>I have no idea how this stuff should be regulated.

That's why we have a system where representatives of districts do research, debate, and hash out those details while the public who votes for them is able to contact them.

>I do know that any sort of comprehensive legislation at this point in time has a much higher chance of being a bottleneck to innovation than an easily reversible white house directive.

That's odd to say after admitting you don't know what the regulation would look like. Especially after seeing the "easily reversible" tariffs from this White House, which changed erratically and had exceptions for people who sweet talked the president.


If you don’t see a difference between a well thought out & debated policy stance and arbitrary enforcement without justification I’m not sure what to say.


Anthropic submitted a long, thoughtful framework proposal, which everyone seems to be ignoring in favor of hot takes like “they asked for this!” No they didn’t, not at all.



> can we make sure these models aren't dangerous

They can’t, though. The models might or might not be too dangerous but the people running the US federal government are too incompetent and/or corrupt to do anything useful about that.


Written laws, passed by congress and senate?


That's not what Trump's doing. He's just trying to pick and choose winners so that he can reward his allies and punish his enemies.


How does a billion break down into 49 million? I'm assuming you mean 400 and 90 million?


I think they mean the vast majority are using the free version to do silly shit.


Free vs paid users.


100%. It really depends on the application domain and system complexity.

I see a lot of people speaking about a 10x productivity improvement and so on. When I work on hobby projects, I do see that. Just last weekend, I set up a hobby project that I've been thinking about for a while. I'm pretty sure it would have taken me at least a week to implement manually, but instead, it took me three hours.

But some of the systems I have to work on during the day are so big and complicated that you can spend multiple days on a small feature or even just tracking down a bug, even with the support of Opus.

Expecting even a 2x productivity improvement on some those systems is wildly unrealistic. I'm seeing a lot of people get stressed out because the productivity gains from simple application building trickle into the expectations for these complex systems.

That said, if things keep improving at this rate it might just be a matter of time.


I set up mine with WSL and used a Linux terminal over xserver. Once you have a decent unix shell (and a good terminal) it's fine. VSCode etc work fine. This was 2020ish, things might've gotten easier now.

But I do prefer a Linux or Mac for development, just because it's so much less hassle to set up.

Windows developers who don't set up a good terminal environment... I honestly don't know how they manage.


I think there are no safe harbor investments at this time. Even gold is unpredictable.

Personally I went 80% world excl US and 20% equal weight S&P500 to hedge against what I think is an AI bubble. But if the market decides to adjust Nvidia's valuation 20% downward next week, I expect there to be ripple effects throughout the economy.

(Like the .com bubble, I think the tech is genuinely transformative and here to stay, but the valuations are just ridiculous.)


The notation is supposed to mean: you have a matrix Q, and also a shared K=V matrix.

I agree with GP that it's super confusing to us the minus sign as a delimiter between formulas. The tuple notation suggested elsewhere would be way clearer.


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