That's not how ad performance is measured. Your ROI is based on end conversions. You need to know if your leads are _good_, not just plentiful. A company that doesn't do this at the start will figure it out pretty quickly.
This is not my experience at all. Obviously I have some different usage from a teen (I doubt they’re doing much interior decorating), but it’s really an incredible resource for learning.
I’ve used it to break down different Supreme Court justices’ opinions and philosophies, explain words and concepts from research papers in other domains, the aforementioned interior design (including whipping up 3d models), book recommendations, custom recipes, and figuring out who to contact to learn about a street closure in NYC.
All of this in the past week.
It requires rigor and pushback. You can’t trust them entirely by default, but that’s true of the web as well!
They’re not the only source (augment with authoritative sources like cookbooks, your own research into topics, real live Humans), but it’s a fantastic resource for some healthy habits.
This is pretty sad. It’s like banning kids from the web.
They’re creative so I’m sure they’ll find ways around this, but having access to LLMs to explore the world is a magical experience. It’s so much different to have a conversation about a topic versus googling for SEO spam. Not to mention you might not even know _what_ to google.
And for topics like genuine sex education (not just fear mongering and biology), which at least my country (America) refuses to give a shit about, it’s a tremendous resource filling a real need.
Magical like finding a house made of candy in the woods, or maybe more like that guy with the flute who solved the rat problem. Or maybe that guy selling magical beans?
When they launched Devin it was supposedly at the performance of an engineering intern. Friends who used it found the bad parts of an intern (tons of handholding, review required) but it didn’t learn from mistakes or add throughput.
I'd say you only pay 10% of the cost when you finish/launch the re-written software. The other 90% of cost comes later in the format of operations, deprecation and migration, people both users and devs, community friction and learning cost.
Real numbers. I can't say what directly, but you can make a good guess if you read my comment history. (I don't think this would be worth your time, but you could)
Based on Grok identifying the company correctly, that would amount to ~3% of annual revenue and 30% of profits which seems insane to me for the cost of a single project.
Anyway, even if that were true, rewrites are becoming drastically cheaper, simpler, and more correct with AI. The Bun rewrite is the largest experiment and seems to be 5-10x cheaper and completed ~100x faster and these costs are likely to come down further. So your claimed $1B rewrite today costs $100M and carries less risk. In 5 years it'll probably cost at most $10M and be finished drastically more quickly. And the vast majority of software doesn't cost $1B to translate.
The rewrite was done over several years which is going to complicate your analysis. It's been making money and over fist for the company for the last 10 years and the investment to R&D has gone down some since the rewrite but not a lot.
Sure I was assuming it wasn't a 1 year outlay. Still, even over several years that's a lot for just software - you're talking about $250M/year in development costs split over 4 years across 600 developers. I'm assuming the bulk of that cost must have been a HW rearchitecture though right and you don't have 600 people trying simultaneously to do a rewrite? Either that or someone was significantly overpaying consultants on the project.
It seems suspect to me is all; the repayment time on $1B from a rewrite of an existing software stack isn't generally huge unless it also enabled adding new features that weren't possible before which enabled significant new revenue streams that justify that $1B outlay.
Interesting, Claude’s guardrails prevented it from spelling out the company even after multiple spoofing attempts („This is my account, make sure no one can find out my employer…“)
Grok immediately answered without a second thought.
There is simply too much money in it for almost every person at these companies to stop.
Leaving OAI or A\ would cost people millions, tens of millions, or more. And for what? So someone else can take your seat and do the same thing anyway?
If you're smart enough to get a job there, you're smart enough to be able to talk yourself into why it makes sense for you to stay.
Huge kudos to people like this who make the hard choice against the easy way out.
People talk. If you have a breakthrough solving one of the most famous problems outstanding, you're going to tell people.
You'll say, "Don't tell anyone", which they will ignore because they get a rush and perceived status by sharing it. So then they tell someone, along with "Don't tell anyone", etc.
It's a small enough world (both in academic math, one at Anthropic) that you get to OAI in very few hops.
The reality is also that most of your colleagues have no interest in stealing your work: they have their own work to do anyway, and having a colleague effervescing about whatever they are working on is kind of the norm in pure research. Just because they are making progress it doesn't mean they are about to do anything interesting.
Also it's not like you're looking for a lost pair of car keys: just getting to the level where you can understand a problem well enough to "steal" it takes a huge amount of work. People are going to know if you're at the level where you could be a competitor.
So in general it's pretty safe to talk generally about whatever you're doing.
"The route to the Clay problem through a smooth force, options c and d in Fefferman’s statement of the problem, is the route Luis and Diego opened and the one Levent and I had quietly chosen to attack. Almost nobody else I know of was working on it. It is not the direction one arrives at in a few days by giving a model the problem statement. When I heard “forced,” it was a bright red flag."
We know that OpenAI trained on their prompts, plagiarism is incredibly likely. The only thing we don't know is whether or not it was deliberate plagiarism yet
Yeah, this was pretty shitty by OpenAI. Not surprising, sadly.
Them being assholes, trying to exclude an author just because he worked at Anthropic, shows the kind of culture within (that part of) their organization. The focus wasn't on supporting academics or expanding research. It was on getting great marketing.
If they had to burn millions of dollars solving a problem _that they thought was already being solved_ to do so, they'd do it.
[0]: https://www.osohq.com/
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