There’s a close enough to fixed amount of money people have to spend. Advertising doesn’t make them spend more (or less) of their budget, it just trys to convince people to buy your widgets instead of mine. When I need a phone, or a pair of sneakers, or a bottle of vodka - I’m going to buy one. Your flashy ad may convince me to buy your brand, but it’s not like I’d choose to not buy anything just because nobody advertised it to me. That even works of discretionary spending and impulse buys - I have a limited “uncommitted budget”, so maybe your ads could convince me to buy a new set of golf clubs instead of taking a trip to Vegas, but it’s all the same money that gets spent.
Even if you fully believe that privacy invasive targeted advertising is “the most effective” advertising, if it goes away the second best form of advertising will then become “the most effective” and will eat the lions share of the advertising spend. Or perhaps the market will dictate that instead of “targeted ads”, the most effective strategy will be to split the old google/Facebook ad spend across a combination of older (or newer) ad forms.
Toyota still want to sell Corollas. TAG still want to sell watches. So long as there’s a form of advertising that’s better than not advertising at all, the aggregate of all competitive sales teams will work out how to soak up all my budget somehow. Something will still me the most effective advertising. They’ll still spend their money to get more of that.
(If it turns out to be billboards or movie product placements or something, that’ll suck for web people who’s only possible way to sell advertising is banner ads, but that’s a different argue,ent...)
Even if you fully believe that privacy invasive targeted advertising is “the most effective” advertising, if it goes away the second best form of advertising will then become “the most effective” and will eat the lions share of the advertising spend. Or perhaps the market will dictate that instead of “targeted ads”, the most effective strategy will be to split the old google/Facebook ad spend across a combination of older (or newer) ad forms.
Toyota still want to sell Corollas. TAG still want to sell watches. So long as there’s a form of advertising that’s better than not advertising at all, the aggregate of all competitive sales teams will work out how to soak up all my budget somehow. Something will still me the most effective advertising. They’ll still spend their money to get more of that.
(If it turns out to be billboards or movie product placements or something, that’ll suck for web people who’s only possible way to sell advertising is banner ads, but that’s a different argue,ent...)