Wait, what happened to the Software Crises of the past 30 years? You know, the one where somebody calculates how many programs are executing, and how many programmers need to do maintenance on these programs, and decides that current graducating rates of comp sci schools won't cut it.

Now, software is eating all the jobs? I don't get it. This is just more "Millenium Fever", similar to all the crapaganda in 1995-1999 about how the year "2000" was going to crash everything.

There is definitely a shortage... Of competent engineers willing to work for peanuts. That's what these articles are really about. One commenter says they are short of developers in Phoenix AZ. What're you offering, hmm? Because the numbers don't lie. Supply and demand applies to talent like any other commodity.

I don't understand how there can be a job bubble without a financial bubble. If current venture funding levels will be sustained, doesn't that suggest that current hiring levels will be sustained as well?

If an industry is actually growing, it can boom. Not all growth is irrational exuberance.

Easy to forget, given the past twenty years or so, but yeah - the economy can actually work.

Does this mean that soon I (software developer) may be making as much as a doctor, or maybe a football player?

According to http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/salaries/2008/... -- easiest data I found to mine, and 2009 and 2010 were weird years. Salary cap info isn't out this year, but it as gone down.

In 2008, there were 2095 players in the NFL according to , and 64 made the rookie league minimum $295,000. 895, or 40%, make less than $500,000. Are you telling me you couldn't find 900 consultants making 300-500,000 dollars? That's billing 2,000 hours at 150 to 250 an hour. Or, it's an IBM or HP high level architect. So, our upper bound compares reasonably to the 1,243 best paid player in the world, and if we stretch definitions to CTO and business owners (a la Page and Brin), the top end of software engineering is similarly lucrative if you are one of the top 1,000 programmers in the world.

Further, the average NFL career lasts 3 years, and most aren't able to convert their NFL success to other areas, becoming bankrupt. I will make more in my career programming than many NFL players, for a lot less work and risk of brain injury.

I think I got a pretty good deal. :)

The only thing that bothers me about the software developer payscale is that there doesn't appear to be any merit pay. Being a "10 to 1" will only net you marginally more than your "average" counterparts. Whereas top performers in other fields appear to bring home more than double the average.

Interestingly, there was a discussion on Quora on this exact point: http://www.quora.com/10X-Engineers/Why-are-the-best-programm...

Yishan Wong, one of the early engineers at Facebook, claims that 10x engineers are actually compensated much better than they appear to be, and suggests that many of these 10x engineers make their fortune in their own ventures.

But he provides no evidence for the hypothesis that '"10x" programmers typically do not work for salaries, but end up leaving companies and starting their own (or joining as very early key employees)'. I think there's little connection between being a "10x" programmer and being entrepeneurial.

Sadly, this is because about 80% of programmers think they are "10 to 1".

One of the main reasons why you should start your own company :)