I think part of the problem why some aspiring programmers give up is because the bar is too damn high. They get fed a constant stream of beautiful 3D games and iPhone apps, and when they start to make one (from following a book/tutorial, for example), it looks like shit compared to what they/others are expecting and they lose their initial enthusiasm.

Compared to a few years ago where a simple 2D/text-based game is already considered pretty cool.