(Backblaze engineer here.) I have no magic crystal ball, but we do have more than 10,000 hard drives spinning in our datacenter, some for 5 years now. We have collected some pretty detailed statistics regarding failure rates vs. drive brand (and 20 other metrics). We really don't see the correlation you imply (shucked consumer drives failure rates). I'm hoping to do a blog post about what we have found regarding drive failure rates, but here is a TL;DR summary: drives fail approximately 1 - 5 % each year, your application and RAID architecture and monitoring strategy MUST compensate for that with no data loss.