I find it extremely unlikely that MtGox would falsely claim that they suffered a theft due to transaction malleability (a real point of possible error) if the actual issue was a US Government seizure. It just strikes me as utterly unbelievable that they would actively cover up (rather than simply failing to disclose) a government seizure.
It's far, far more likely that Karpales is either grossly incompetent or a thief than it is that he's making up complicated stories to cover up a government action.
You can't disclose if you are under a gag order. If Mark was running a fractional reserve because the coins were seized, and they got hit with the transaction mailability issue, that could set the stage for what we're seeing today.
I agree Occam's Razor applies here. That said, we still don't know a lot about what happened.
I find it extremely unlikely that MtGox would falsely claim that they suffered a theft due to transaction malleability (a real point of possible error) if the actual issue was a US Government seizure. It just strikes me as utterly unbelievable that they would actively cover up (rather than simply failing to disclose) a government seizure.
It's far, far more likely that Karpales is either grossly incompetent or a thief than it is that he's making up complicated stories to cover up a government action.